Projection time
The projection time for a redistribution is calculated in accordance with section 63A of the Electoral Act.
The “starting time” to calculate is the date when the augmented Electoral Commission will cause the names and boundaries of electoral divisions in New South Wales to be published in the Gazette.
For this redistribution, the starting time is 10 October 2024.
The standard projection time of three years and six months will apply for this redistribution.
The projection time for this redistribution is therefore 10 April 2028.
Projected enrolment quota
The projected enrolment quota is calculated by dividing the projected number of people enrolled in New South Wales at the projection time by the number of members of the House of Representatives to which New South Wales is entitled.
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Estimated total number of electors enrolled in New South Wales at the projection time (Monday 10 April 2028) |
5,962,555 |
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Number of members of the House of Representatives to which New South Wales is entitled |
46 |
|
Projected enrolment quota for New South Wales |
129,621 |
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Permissible maximum number of electors in an electoral division at the projection time (projected enrolment quota + 3.5%) |
134,157 |
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Permissible minimum number of electors in an electoral division at the projection time (projected enrolment quota – 3.5%) |
125,085 |
Enrolment projections for New South Wales: by electoral division, SA2 and SA1
Enrolment projections as at Monday 10 April 2028 for each electoral division in New South Wales by Statistical Area 2 (SA2) and Statistical Area 1 (SA1). The percentage growth is also indicated.
- New South Wales – SA1 – actual, project enrolment and growth rate
- New South Wales – SA1 – actual, projected enrolment and growth rate by Division
Please note the Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) is an area defined in the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS), and consists of one or more whole Statistical Areas Level 1 (SA1s). Wherever possible SA2s are based on officially gazetted New South Wales suburbs and localities. In urban areas SA2s largely conform to whole suburbs and combinations of whole suburbs, while in rural areas they define functional zones of social and economic links. Geography is also taken into account in SA2 design.
The SA1s and SA2s used for this redistribution are those which applied at the 2021 Census of Population and Housing.
New South Wales small area population and enrolment projections
This paper, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, outlines the process used for producing New South Wales’ projected enrolment at Monday 10 April 2028 by electoral divisions and SA1.
Explanatory notes
This paper, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, provides some information about SA1 population estimates.
Differences between federal and New South Wales electoral rolls
There is a federal electoral roll and an electoral roll for each state and territory. This is because each jurisdiction in Australia has their own electoral legislation, with electors subject to both federal and New South Wales legislative requirements which may differ. It is these legislative differences which cause roll divergence. The causes of roll divergence can be categorised into two types:
- divergence caused by differences in qualifications and disqualifications for enrolment and voting, and
- divergence caused by differences in the process undertaken to enrol and maintain the currency of enrolment details.
Either type of divergence may result in an elector being enrolled for electoral events at one government level but not the other, or enrolled at different addresses for different levels of government.